Thursday, November 13, 2008


Billboard reported today that Def Jam have decided to move their three big November 25th releases (Kanye West's 808's & Heartbreak, The Killers Day & Age & Ludacris' Theater of the Mind) to the off-cycle Monday 24th, to capitalize on the Thanksgiving shopping weekend. This puts all three releases up against Guns N' Rose's first album in 15 years, Chinese Democracy, which will be made available as a Best Buy exclusive on Sunday, 23rd.

So the big question is, which album will take the coveted #1 Billboard position?

Here's the official Fuego First Week Prediction:

#1. Guns N' Roses - Chinese Democracy (900-1 mil+)

Based on the almost year long buzz combined with good early reviews, a top #10 mainstream rock track and the fact CD will be their first album of original studio material since the simultaneous release of Use Your Illusion I & Use Your Illusion II in September 1991.

10 million dollars later, and the Shaquille O'Neal joint probably won't be on the album. They need to do AC/DC numbers just to recoup.

#2. Kanye West - 808's & Heartbreak (600-650)

I'm still unsure about numbers 2 & 3. I feel like 'Ye will ease out The Killers but only narrowly. Majority of the blog reviews from the album listening event painted a relatively uncommitted opinion of the music. There has been a lukewarm reception to the leaks "Robocop", "Coldest Winter" and "Anyway" and up until Ye premiered the Heartless video, it seemed like people had lost the initial excitement for the project.

#3. The Killers - Day & Age (450-500)

The Killers 2006 release, Sam's Town sold 315k in its first week and has sold over 4 million worldwide. If thats anything to go by, they should be able to reach higher this time around, especially since some reviewers are crowning the Stuart Price produced Day & Age as their best album to date and one of the best albums of 2008.

#4. Ludacris - Theater of the Mind (230-270)

Despite the Trackmasters produced, T-Pain assisted "One More Drink" quickly becoming a hit at Rhythmic radio, I don't see TOTM selling as well as any of his previous albums. His last album Release Therapy sold 309k first week off the back of a #1 Billboard single with "Money Maker". I feel like this is his last chance to put together a great album.

Interesting fact: when Kanye's Graduation went up against 50 Cent's Curtis last year, it was only the second time in history that two albums had sold in excess of 600k each in the first week of release. The first time was Guns N' Roses Use Your Illusion I & Use Your Illusion II in 1991.


Memphis said...

i'm a huge gunners fan, but i still just don't know.

i've read the reviews, whatever whatever but it just doesn't feel like it should, you know?

Memphis said...

oh and re: kanye

100% agree, initial excitement has dwindled, don;t think it'l make the impact it could have

especially with all the leaks, personally my cycle was:
love lockdown - ok cool he's doing something

heartless - fuck yeah this is going to go somewhere, worth checking

5 or so songs later and a video - , i'm bored, gotta find that luda joint with hov and nas?

FUEGO said...

it seems like with the leak today, he's gonna have an enormous blog buzz but what does that amount to, really? from what i've heard of the leaks, it just sounds terrible.. especially the wayne joint.